INTRODUCTORY POINTS:
- ICUMS digitally manages the entire national customs infrastructure but costs under GH₵1.5 billion a year.
- Truedare/Publican AI Customs System is just an AI-Analytic tool sitting on ICUMS data to improve revenues but estimated to cost GH₵2.8 Billion this year.
ESTIMATING 2026 PAYMENT FOR ICUMS
Please patiently read the analysis below to understand how dumb or wicked or both the NDC government has been signing such a contract to squeeze traders (importers and exporters) the way they’ve done.
Finding it difficult to get a direct projected FOB value our import for 2026, I used three different approaches as in below to determine 2026 FOB outturn to enable me estimate 2026 payment to operators of ICUMS.
First, I used Ghana’s total imports for 2025 estimated at about US$17–17.5 billion (FOB), equivalent to about GH₵210–215 billion and applied observed growth rate of about 10–12%. This gives a projected 2026 FOB value of about US$19.0–19.5 billion (approximately GH₵247–254 billion) using a projected average exchange rate of GH₵13 to the dollar.
Second, I applied the reserves (import-cover) approach, based on Bank of Ghana data of about 5.8 months of import cover and the corresponding reported reserves of US$10.7 billion. This gave a projected FOB value of about US$22.0–22.3 billion (≈ GH₵286–290 billion).
Third, I applied the Customs revenue back-calculation approach, using projected Customs revenue of GH₵67.54 billion and a Ghana-specific effective tax rate of about 24–25%. This also gives an estimate of about US$20.8–21.6 billion (≈ GH₵270–281 billion).
Applying the ICUMS fee of 0.75% to these estimates suggests Ghana could pay approximately GH₵1.9 billion to GH₵2.2 billion to operators of ICUMS in 2026. See?
COMMON SENSE QUESTION:
The two levels of payments to operators of ICUMS and Publican AI Customs System lead to some straightforward common-sense questions;
- How can Ghana justifiably be paying just about GH₵1.9–2.2 billion this year for a full end-to-end Integrated Customs Management System (ICUMS) yet sign up a contract to pay as much as GH₵2.8 billion for a tool layered onto that same system?
- With this level of duties and taxes being additionally extracted from traders, is it surprising the NDC government, Finance Minister and GRA’s Commissioner-General are keeping secret the financial details of the contract?
- Is it also surprising that traders are chocking under the Truedare/Publican AI Customs AI system?
By Joseph Cudjoe
The writer is a former Minister of Public Enterprises and MP for Effia