When the Electoral Commission declared John Boadu as NPP National Chairman-elect at the Baba Yara Sports Stadium on Saturday, political pollsters took notice for another reason – the stunning accuracy of the survey conducted by policy think tank Africa Policy Lens (APL) .
The APL had conducted series of polls on the APL, but 24 hours before delegates converged in Kumasi, the APL released its final poll projecting the outcome of the highly competitive chairmanship race. And when the ballot boxes were opened, its prediction turned out to be almost perfect.
The near perfect prediction
The APL poll predicted 47.3% for John Boadu, and the Electoral Commission declared 47.19% (2,888 votes) for him – a variance of just 0.11%.
It also predicted 39.0% for Boakye Agyarko, and he obtained 39.35% (2,408 votes) – a difference of only 0.35%.
For Paul Afoko, APL projected 12.5% for him, while the final result was 12.90% (790 votes) – a variance of 0.40%.
And for Sammy Crabbe, who stepped down at the Conference ground, the APL poll predicted 0.7%, and despite stepping down, he polled 0.67% (41 votes) – a near-perfect variance of only 0.03%.
In an election with 6,141 delegates voting and only 14 rejected ballots, the largest margin of error across all four candidates was less than half a percent.
The NPP chairmanship race was considered one of the most difficult to poll. It is a delegates election, not a mass national vote, where lobbying, last-minute inducements and camp strategies can swing votes overnight.
In the race for General Secretary and Women’s Organiser, APL also got it accurately, having reported a no-contest situation, projecting that incumbent General Secretary Justin Kodua Frempong and Hawa Koomson were secured.
APL’s near-perfect prediction strengthens credibility for not just the think tank, but also scientific polling in Ghana’s internal party elections, which are often dismissed as unpredictable.