Economist and professor of finance, Godfred Alufar Bokpin, has raised red flags about Ghana’s potential premature exit from its IMF programme in late 2025, warning that the country may not be ready to stand on its own feet without the oversight and support.
Professor Bokpin voiced strong concerns during a discussion on the Joy FM Super Morning Show today, May 27.
“Given our current progress, if we essentially exit by December 2025 when reviews are complete around mid-2026, I think it will be premature to say, ‘yes, we’re walking away completely’. I see the government’s damage control approach of transitioning to a policy support instrument rather than full exit, but the reality is we all would prefer Ghana to stand independently,” he underscored.
Ghana has sought IMF help 17 times since independence, with previous premature exits leading to quick relapses.
Professor Bokpin highlighted Ghana’s troubling history without IMF supervision: “If you check our records with the IMF, the government is actually more accountable to citizens when under an IMF programme. There’s greater transparency, collaboration and disclosure to the people of Ghana under IMF supervision than when we’re on our own.”
He was particularly concerned about alarming discrepancies in Ghana’s fiscal reporting, with the two major political parties in Ghana using different formulas when it suited them.
He believes this does not present a standard framework to identify the critical problems and propose effective solutions.
“In early 2022, when we highlighted that the Bank of Ghana was monetising debt (essentially printing more cedis), the central bank denied it. We said, ‘Wait until the IMF applies their Debt Sustainability Framework.’ The truth came out – our debt-to-GDP ratio in present value terms was 109%, while before the IMF came in, we were reporting less than 80%. Ghana’s public debt had become multiple choice – you picked the number based on which party you supported.”
While Professor Bokpin acknowledged some economic gains, he pointed to persisting institutional weaknesses.
Professor Bokpin further questioned whether Ghana had developed sufficient institutional maturity,”We’ve aged but haven’t matured. On our own, we can’t hold ourselves to the accountability and discipline required for medium- to long-term progress. Can we demonstrate operational independence of a Fiscal Council that provides real oversight, not just theoretical?”
Some experts have proposed that Ghana maintain some form of IMF engagement beyond 2025 while strengthening domestic fiscal oversight institutions.
Other proposals have included the implementation of binding fiscal rules with enforcement mechanisms and enhancing transparency in debt reporting and monetary operations.
Economists warn that without maintaining discipline, Ghana risks repeating its boom-bust cycle and returning to the IMF sooner than expected.
Source: Myjoyonline.com