Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is emerging as the front-runner ahead of the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) highly anticipated primaries on Saturday, January 31, according to recent analysis by Michael Donyina Mensah, Executive Director of the Centre for Public Opinion and Awareness.
Speaking in an interview on GHOne TV, Mensah emphasised that the latest polls are designed to provide insights into voter intentions rather than predict outcomes, noting that vote buying and other election irregularities can skew results. Nevertheless, the data indicate strong support for Dr. Bawumia, with 42% of surveyed delegates saying they intend to vote for him. His closest contender, Kennedy Agyapong, garnered 34%, leaving Dr. Bawumia with an eight-point lead. Seventeen percent of respondents remained undecided, while seven percent indicated support for other candidates.
Mensah highlighted that history appears to favour Dr. Bawumia. “Since the NPP came into being, he is the first first-time candidate to score over 60% in his initial contest. Historically, first-time candidates improve on subsequent attempts, so the trends are strongly in his favour,” he said.
Despite this lead, the race remains fluid. Polls indicate that 28% of delegates could still change their minds before voting, and while Agyapong has a smaller base, his support remains credible. Mensah noted attrition among Dr. Bawumia’s backers, with 67% indicating continued support compared to 81% for Agyapong’s supporters, though absolute numbers still favour Dr. Bawumia.
As Ghana’s largest internal party election approaches, all eyes will be on the 200,000 delegates whose votes are expected to shape the NPP’s ticket and influence the party’s prospects in the next general election.